The Model Approach

Predicting future employment and training requirements by analysing national data on productivity, capacity and skills.

The CSN Model is run by Experian, who work with the Technical Reference Group to continuously develop and improve it.

The CSN Model works by analysing national data on capacity, productivity and skills to predict future employment and training requirements. The method of which is illustrated in the diagram below.

The model approach

CSN members are then invited to observatory meetings to challenge the assumptions and provide up-to-date views and opinions.

Scenarios

Scenario testing is a further application of the Construction Skills Network Model. 

“What if” scenarios can be built and fed into the Model to test different events or conditions, and to assess the impact on labour requirements. 

This produces plausible outcomes which can assist with future planning. 

Example Scenario

In the summer of 2008, it was thought that a large correction in property prices was unlikely. The reasoning was that in the last house price crash between 1990 and 1993, cumulative falls only totalled around 10%.

The concerns of CSN members were addressed by running the Model based on an unprecedented 30% crash scenario.

This allowed us to get an early possible view (not a forecast) of the effects of such a crash on output and employment.

Subsequent trends in the housing market demonstrate the value of the ability to model around scenarios in this way.

Web design by S8080